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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 23rd, 2013–Mar 24th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Very large cornices have been falling off naturally and triggered by people moving near them. Expect cornices to continue to fall during this period of sunny weather.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Sunday: Some convective energy may cause localised flurries with little accumulation overnight. Convective energy should be reduced on Sunday as the High pressure system moves over the Interior. Expect mostly sunny skies with light Southwest winds and freezing levels rising to about 1300 metres. Strong solar radiation may cause moist snow up to 2100 metres on Southerly aspects.Monday: The surface ridge of High pressure should stay mostly intact as it slides a bit to the East. Expect mostly sunny skies with light Southwest winds and freezing levels rising to about 1400 metres.Tuesday: Some cloud is expected to drift into the interior from a weak disturbance on the coast. There is a chance of flurries that may accumulate a couple of cms.

Avalanche Summary

Natural cornice falls up to size 3.0 were reported from Thursday. Some of these avalanches entrained a lot of snow in the tracks, but did not step down to deeply buried weak layers (March 10th surface hoar/facet ).

Snowpack Summary

Cornices are reported to be very large and weakly bonded. Natural cornice falls are a concern during daytime warming. Cornices may also be triggered easily by travelling near them. Slopes with corniced entrances, or exposed to cornice falls should be avoided with these conditions. Dry windslabs may be found on Northwest thru Northeast aspects at higher elevations. These wind slabs are reported to be improving their bond to the old surface, but may continue to be triggered by skiers and riders. Loose moist or wet snow may fall naturally out of very steep terrain on sun exposed slopes. Small loose snow avalanches may trigger the recent storm snow slab where it is moist from solar heating and sitting on a planar sliding surface like an old sun or rain crust. The weak layer of buried surface hoar from March 10th is down more than a metre in most places, and is reported to require hard forces to result in resistant failures in snow profile tests. The lower snowpack consists of well bonded layers that are well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The recent storm has left a storm slab on Southerly aspects that may be triggered by strong solar radiation or loose snow in motion, and wind slabs at higher elevations that remain dry on shaded aspects and terrain features.
Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Cornices

Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Persistent Slabs

Large loads like cornice fall may trigger the deeply buried March 10th surface hoar layer.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 3 - 6