Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

5-10 cm forecast overnight with freezing levels remaining above 1500 metres and strong southwest winds. Another 5-10 cm during the day on Saturday with strong southerly winds and freezing levels creeping up to 1800 metres. There is a chance of sunny periods in the late afternoon when a brief break between storm pulses moves across the region. Warm, wet, and windy on Sunday. A weak ridge should drop freezing levels to valley bottoms by Monday morning, before broken or scattered cloud allows the sun to bring the freezing level back up to 1500 metres during the day.

Reports from Thursday that several natural size 2.0 slab avalanches and one size 3.0 storm slab were suspected to have released on the late February surface hoar layer. There was also a report of a size 3.0 avalanche remotely triggered by a skier that was 20 metres away. On Wednesday, there were reports of a few natural slab avalanches up to size 2.5 failing on the late Feb. sun crust/surface hoar combo. These slides were from S-E aspects at treeline and showed impressive propagation. Reports from Tuesday include more evidence of the widespread natural avalanche cycle early Monday, with avalanches up to Size 2.5.

30-60cm thick storm slabs are bonding poorly to a crust on previously sun-exposed slopes and surface hoar (February 27th or late February) on shady and sheltered slopes. Thicker and touchier wind slabs are lurking throughout exposed terrain at and above treeline. A couple of sun crusts might exist in the upper 50-70cm on southerly aspects. The surface hoar and/or crust layer which was buried February 10 is now down around a metre and is still producing isolated hard sudden results in snowpack tests. Large cornices will be getting weak with warmer temperatures.