Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 17th, 2016 9:43AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Loose Wet, Cornices and Wet Slabs.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Spring Conditions. Sunny skies and very high freezing levels will increase the avalanche danger. The surface crust holds the snowpack together and may break down rapidly if there is no re-freeze Sunday night.

Summary

Weather Forecast

It looks HOT for the foreseeable future with no overnight temperature recovery expected. MONDAY: Freezing level holding at 3500m, very little wind except at ridgetop where moderate southwest wind is expected, no precipitation, clear skies. TUESDAY: Freezing level holding at 3500m, light variable wind, no precipitation, clear skies. WEDNESDAY: Freezing level holding at 3500m, light variable wind, no precipitation, clear skies.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported, but we have very few eyes and ears still in the mountains reporting. Most commercial operations in the region have finished their season and data is sparse.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface is currently going through a typical spring melt-freeze cycle on all aspects and at all elevations, except possibly high true-north slopes which could be holding onto cold snow. The strength (thickness) of the surface crust and how quickly it breaks down during the day are important factors to focus on. Watch for new snow releasing as loose wet avalanches when the sun comes out. The hottest weather this year is forecast for Monday, which may test the snowpack's ability to gracefully melt away. Little or no overnight freezing is expected which will intensify this test.

Problems

Loose Wet

Sunny skies and high freezing levels will weaken the surface snow on solar aspects. Shaded aspects in the alpine may warm up enough to release as loose wet avalanches.

Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Travel early before the heat of the day, and avoid big slopes in the afternoon.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Cornices

Strong solar radiation and high freezing levels will continue to test remaining cornices in the alpine. Watch your overhead hazard and avoid traveling beneath corniced ridges.

Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Wet Slabs

The likelihood of wet slab avalanches will increase over the next few days with forecast high freezing levels and strong solar radiation. Be especially careful at mid and lower elevations where the entire snowpack is sloppy and unsupportive.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>Travel early before the heat of the day, and avoid big slopes in the afternoon.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Apr 18th, 2016 2:00PM