Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with light winds and convective flurries, some areas may see 5-10 cm of new snow.THURSDAY: Overcast with convective flurries and light easterly winds. Alpine temperatures may be close to -20 in the morning.FRIDAY: Cloudy with 10-15cm of fresh snow accompanied by moderate SW winds. Alpine temperatures reaching -10 C.

Reports from Monday include several natural avalanches up to Size 1.5 out of extreme terrain after brief sun-exposure, and one natural Size 2.5 on a northeast aspect. On Sunday we had one report of a natural cornice fall size 2.0 and a skier accidentally triggered a size 1.0 avalanche. Storm slab avalanches were widespread on Saturday up to size 2.5.

45-70 cm of new snow fell in the past week, which is bonding poorly to faceted snow, thin sun crust on steep southerly aspects, as well as surface hoar in sheltered areas in some parts of the region. The snowfall was accompanied by moderate to strong southerly winds, which promoted the formation of touchy storm slabs at upper elevations. About 75-100 cm below the surface you'll likely find the mid-February persistent weakness, which is composed of a thick rain crust up to about 1700 m, sun crusts on steep solar aspects, and spotty surface hoar on shaded aspects. Recent reports have suggested greater reactivity on this layer at lower elevations where the rain crust is more prominent. Professionals in the region have also warned that a 'threshold load' has been reached above this interface, particularly where it presents as a crust. Some lingering surface hoar layers from January are now down a metre or slightly more and the weak mid-December facets are down about 1.5 metres. These deep persistent weaknesses still have the potential to react to human triggers or smaller storm slab avalanches.