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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 14th, 2019–Mar 15th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Banff Yoho Kootenay.

Watch for increased winds Friday at upper elevations. We will see a change in conditions over the next few days as solar inputs increase. There is enough uncertainty to bump up the danger, but many areas will stay in the Moderate rating Friday. 

Weather Forecast

There will be a slow increase in solar input and a general warming trend over the next week. which is certainly the transition to a spring . On Friday some regions will see high solar input (especially on the front ranges) with strong alpine winds.  Every day will be slightly warmer on the weekend and rapidly rise starting Monday.

Snowpack Summary

15-30cm recent low density snow (higher amounts in western regions) over previously wind blown surfaces in the alpine, and 30-50cm of facets below. Lower elevations are completely faceted to ground. Steep areas continue to produce sluffing in many areas with buried suncrust on steep S aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Sporadic activity up to size 2.5 over the last 24 hours in Kootenay and Sunshine, with less activity in other regions.  Some were wind slabs which entrained facets to 2.5 which ran far which correlates to previous explosive control and observations over the last few days. 

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow and strong SW winds have built variable wind slabs in open areas above treeline. These slabs are sitting on the weak, faceted snow that was previously on the surface and as a result can run further than expected when triggered.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.Watch for surface cracking and stiffer surface layers of snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Dry

If triggered on their own, loose dry avalanches that are smaller in size can be initiated in steep terrain. If triggered by a wind slab, much larger avalanches that can run far are possible as they entrains facets on the way down.
Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.Good group management is essential to manage current conditions safely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3