Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Friday Night: Snow, accumulation 15-25 cm. Alpine temperature -3 C. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1600 m.

Saturday: Snow, accumulation 15-30 cm. Alpine temperature -2 C. moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1700 m.

Sunday: Flurries, 5-10 cm. Alpine temperature -3 C. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 1000 m.

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature -4 C. light southwest wind. Freezing level 1000 m.

Expect a natural avalanche cycle to be ongoing through Saturday as slabs build due to heavy loading from snowfall, wind and warm temperatures. On Friday there were reports of widespread avalanche activity in the recent storm snow.

On Wednesday, two large natural avalanches in the Morrissey area were reported to have failed on a crust from mid-November. A cornice failure triggered a size 2.5 avalanche, and one size 2 slab avalanche failed naturally, both avalanches had crown depths 70-100 cm, were on east-northeast aspects, and suspected to have been triggered by strong winds.

Snowfall at upper elevations has covered a previously variable and wind-affected surface and is expected to build and develop reactive storm slabs. Expect the surface snow at lower elevations to be moist due to rain.

Crust layers from November and October can be found 40-100 cm below the surface. These layers produced large avalanches with explosive triggers around Dec 13-14, but since then have appeared to gain strength, but may become overloaded with incoming snow.

Snowpack depths range between 60-130 cm at higher elevations and taper rapidly below treeline.

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
• Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.