Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Friday night: Clear with patchy cloud / light to moderate west winds / alpine low temperature -24

Saturday: Sun with increasing cloud / light to moderate southwest winds / alpine high temperature -11, valley inversion 

Sunday: Cloudy, isolated flurries / light south winds / alpine high temperature -12  

Monday: Cloudy, isolated flurries / light south winds / alpine high temperature -12  

Recent strong southwest winds have formed wind slabs in lee features at upper elevations that may be possible to human trigger. On Sunday, observers reported human-triggered avalanches in wind-stiffened snow in the south of the region (check out the MIN reports here and here). Cornices may be reaching their breaking point and can act as triggers on slopes below. 

On Saturday, professional operators reported a small (size 1) avalanche releasing 40 cm deep on the Jan 11th surface hoar layer. Observers south of Valemount also reported reactivity on the surface hoar buried down 45 cm. They saw shooting cracks and slab activity at 1700m on an easterly aspect. 

Since field observations in this region are limited, please consider submitting your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Recent winds have scoured snow surfaces, loaded cornices, and formed stiff wind slabs in alpine and upper treeline areas. Clear skies and cold temperatures are encouraging surface hoar growth and surface faceting.

A weak of layer of surface hoar can be found buried 35-60 cm deep. This layer demonstrated reactivity over the weekend from observers in the south of the region near Valemount. It is most suspect in sheltered, open slopes at and below treeline. Although results from recent snowpack tests show increasingly resistant results (check out this MIN from near Barkerville), careful assessment is warranted. Below 1600 m, 20-30 cm of snow is settling above a decomposing melt freeze crust.

Deeper in the snowpack, a couple of older persistent weak layers may still be identifiable from late and early December, consisting of surface hoar and a crust with faceted snow and buried anywhere from 70-150 cm deep. Prolonged periods of inactivity and unreactive snowpack test results suggest that these layers have trended towards dormancy. 

• Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
• Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.