Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Tuesday: Moderate (locally heavy) snowfall associated with a front. Moderate south-westerly winds. Freezing level gradually lowering to near valley floor. Winds turning westerly and decreasing. Wednesday: Cool and showery weather. Freezing level near valley floor. Thursday: Moderate (locally heavy) snow. Freezing level rising to 1500m. Strong south-westerly winds.

On Monday, skiers triggered size 1-1.5 soft slabs in steep terrain. A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred up to size 3 in response to very warm temperatures and loading of start zones by strong winds on Friday and Saturday. Video footage here: http://bit.ly/yR4E8r . On Friday, a snowmobiler was killed in a size 3 slab on a south-west aspect at treeline in the Corbin Creek area. Over the last week, there were several reports from in or near the region of near misses, including a snowmobiler who triggered an avalanche and was buried for around 30 minutes, remote-triggered avalanches, and slab avalanches running into unusually low-angled terrain.

Storm snow continues to build up. South-westerly winds are likely to have created wind slabs behind ridges and terrain breaks. The mid February surface hoar layer in the upper snowpack is most prevalent in the west and south of the region, particularly in the Flathead. Recent snowpack tests, as well as rider-triggered avalanches, on this weak layer indicate that it still has the potential to be triggered in many areas, resulting in a large avalanche. Remote-triggering, triggering from below and triggering on low-angled terrain are also concerns. Basal facets may still exist, particularly in shallower snowpack areas with steep, rocky start zones. Cornices have grown large and threaten slopes below. Conditions are variable across the region.