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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 17th, 2024–Dec 18th, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Expect avalanche danger to rise to High through the day as snowfall accumulates and the wind blows strong from the west.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Monday avalanche activity was reported primarily as several naturally and skier triggered wind slab and storm slabs size 1 to 2 in the alpine and tree line.

There were two reports of persistent slab avalanches running on northerly aspects. One was size 2 explosives triggered fracturing 60-80 cm deep at 2200 m. The other a size 1.5 skier triggered 50 cm deep at 1600 m.

Be aware of potential for step down avalanches as the load increases on buried surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of new snow Tuesday night will be redistributed by southwest winds in the alpine and open treeline forming wind slabs in lee features.

A surface hoar layer formed in early December is now buried 40 to 80 cm and is most prevalent between the 1700 to 2200 m elevation bands (see this MIN). We're tracking this layer as the load (and resulting slab) builds above it. We may see reactivity increase if the load above reaches a critical threshold.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night Cloudy with 10 to 15 cm of snow. 30 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

WednesdayCloudy with 15 to 20 mm of snow. 35 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks. 25 to 45 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. 25 to 45 km/h southwest ridgetop winds. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect, and exposure to wind.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will build as snow accumulates through the day Wednesday.

A surface hoar layer buried early December is 40 to 80 cm down from the snow surface. Expect avalanche activity to increase as the load builds on this layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5