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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 2nd, 2023–Feb 3rd, 2023
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Danger will increase rapidly with the arrival of a storm on Friday afternoon. Stick to lower angle terrain and avoid wind-loaded slopes.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, however field observations suggest new snow is bonding poorly to a buried crust. Human-triggered avalanches will be likely on Friday as new snow accumulates above the crust, and natural avalanches will be likely on wind-loaded slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Stormy weather arrives Friday afternoon and will result in rapid accumulations of new snow above 1000 m. Intense snow transport is likely in open terrain due to extreme southerly winds. This snow is falling above a recently buried melt-freeze crust, and observations from the past few days suggest the snow will bond poorly to this crust. The crust is up to 10 cm thick at lower elevations and tapers down to 1 cm thick on shaded or high elevation terrain. Below this crust, the snowpack is generally strong and bonded.

Weather Summary

Thursday night

Cloudy, scattered flurries bring 5 cm of new snow to the central and northern island, 60 to 80 km/h south wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures cooling to -2 ËšC.

Wednesday

Flurries becoming more intense around noon bringing a total of 20 to 30 cm of snow by the late afternoon, 80 to 100 m/h south to southeast wind, freezing level climbs to 1400 m in the morning then drops to 1000 m when the storm arrives midday.

Saturday

Stormy weather continues with snow accumulations of 20 to 40 cm above 1000 m, 60 to 80 km/h south wind, treeline temperatures around -2 ËšC.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 5 to 10 cm of snow, 20 to 30 km/h south wind, freezing level around 1000 m, treeline temperatures around -2 ËšC.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Choose low-angled, sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will develop rapidly on Friday afternoon as 20 to 30 cm of new snow is expected to arrive with extreme south wind. The new snow will likely have a poor bond to the recently buried crust, making human-triggered avalanches likely on steep slopes with more than 20 cm of snow above the crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2