Avalanche Forecast

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Tuesday: Flurries throughout the day (5 -10 cm). Light to moderate southerly winds. Alpine temperature -8. Wednesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Light westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -10.Thursday: Scattered flurries (5-10 cm possible). Light to moderate south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -8. More information can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

A natural storm slab avalanche cycle occurred on Monday with heavy snow and temperatures up to +2 Celsius in some tree line locations. See this MIN report for a good example of avalanche activity. Widespread avalanche activity was reported on Saturday near Allen Creek. Avalanches from Size 1 to 3 (many triggered by humans) were observed, especially on north east aspects between 1900m and 2600m. See this great MIN report for more information. Conditions remain primed for human triggered avalanches on Tuesday, with the potential for some surprisingly large avalanches given how many persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack.

20-30 cm of storm snow fell Sunday into Monday and temperatures warmed up to -2 at tree line in the south of the region (and +2 near Barkerville). The new snow sits on a complex snowpack and there are three active weak layers that professionals are monitoring:1) Down about 40-80 cm is a crust and/or surface hoar layer buried mid-January. The surface hoar is up to 10 mm in size, found at all elevation bands and very reactive on north east aspects between 1900-2600m.2) Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is found 50 to 130 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes and sun crust on steep solar aspects and found at all elevation bands. Snowpack tests show sudden fracture characters with easy to moderate loads and high propagation potential. 3) Another weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 110 to 170 cm deep. It is most problematic at and below tree line.A rain crust buried in November is 100 to 200 cm deep and is likely dormant for the time being.See here for a good summary of snowpack test results.