Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday

WEDNESDAY: Light winds. Around 10 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -5.THURSDAY: Light winds. Around 10 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -7.FRIDAY: Strong south-westerly winds. Possible flurries. Alpine temperature near -5

A natural avalanche cycle was observed from the air on Tuesday. It was described as widespread in the Lizard Range, with numerous size 3-3.5 avalanches starting in the alpine and running to near valley floor, and size 2 avalanches at and below treeline. Operators also reported numerous large human, vehicle and remote-triggered avalanches. Expect continuing avalanche activity on Wednesday. The natural cycle will probably slow a little as temperatures cool, but as long as its snowing and blowing, avalanche activity will be likely to continue.On Monday, a skier-triggered size 2 avalanche was reported near McDermott Cabin at around 1800 m.

The snowpack reached its tipping point on Tuesday as warming and precipitation combined to overload persistent weak layers in the snowpack and create a large natural avalanche cycle.A volatile weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found at treeline and below. Deeper in the snowpack, an early season rain crust and sugary facets are also being stressed. Avalanches failing on these layers are large and destructive.