Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 9th, 2018 4:02PM
The alpine rating is Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeVery dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Light winds. Around 10 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -5.THURSDAY: Light winds. Around 10 cm snow. Alpine temperature near -7.FRIDAY: Strong south-westerly winds. Possible flurries. Alpine temperature near -5
Avalanche Summary
A natural avalanche cycle was observed from the air on Tuesday. It was described as widespread in the Lizard Range, with numerous size 3-3.5 avalanches starting in the alpine and running to near valley floor, and size 2 avalanches at and below treeline. Operators also reported numerous large human, vehicle and remote-triggered avalanches. Expect continuing avalanche activity on Wednesday. The natural cycle will probably slow a little as temperatures cool, but as long as its snowing and blowing, avalanche activity will be likely to continue.On Monday, a skier-triggered size 2 avalanche was reported near McDermott Cabin at around 1800 m.
Snowpack Summary
The snowpack reached its tipping point on Tuesday as warming and precipitation combined to overload persistent weak layers in the snowpack and create a large natural avalanche cycle.A volatile weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found at treeline and below. Deeper in the snowpack, an early season rain crust and sugary facets are also being stressed. Avalanches failing on these layers are large and destructive.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Recent snow and warming have created widespread storm slabs. If triggered, these could step down to a persistent weak layer and create a surprisingly large avalanche.
Watch your sluff: it may run faster and further than you expect.Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain. Large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Touchy weak layers are making for volatile avalanche conditions. Large avalanches are failing naturally and with very easy (even remote) triggers.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended with current conditions.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 10th, 2018 2:00PM