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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 7th, 2018–Mar 8th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Hazard may be one step higher in areas that receive more than 10 cm of new snow by Thursday afternoon.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: 5-10 cm new snow / Light to moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing levels rising to around 1500 m. THURSDAY NIGHT: 5-15 cm new snow / Strong southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1200 m.FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with flurries / Moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level around 1500m.SATURDAY: Mostly sunny / Light southwesterly ridgetop winds / Freezing level rising to around 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Two size 2 slab avalanches were reported near Fernie on Tuesday. One was triggered by a cornice and the other by an explosive. Avalanche activity will likely increase on Friday as Thursday night's storm creates fresh storm slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm of recent storm snow and sun crusts on solar aspects.In the upper to mid snowpack, a surface hoar layer buried mid-February is now 80 to 100 cm below the surface on sheltered northerly aspects. Deeper in the snowpack, the widespread mid-December and late November weak layers are composed of a combination of crusts and sugary facets which are down 200-300 cm. No recent avalanches have occurred on these persistent weak layers. However, the primary concern looking ahead towards the weekend and early next week is the potential of these deeper persistent weak layers becoming active by rapid warming of the snowpack through rising freezing levels and intense solar radiation.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs may be larger than expected in areas that receive more than 10 cm of snow by Thursday afternoon.
Use caution when transitioning into wind effected terrain.Use small slopes with low or no consequence to test the bond of the new snow.Avoid terrain traps where small avalanches can have high consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5