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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2017–Dec 16th, 2017
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Vancouver Island.

Confidence

Moderate - Sparse alpine data

Travel/Terrain Advice

New snow and wind load on the old snow surface and how well that new load is bonding to that surface will be the question this weekend. Use caution when changing aspects and elevation bands and be aware of any loaded slopes, especially if there is a crust under that load. Take note if temperatures begin to rise in the afternoon as that may increase the load on the slope.

Past Weather

A large high pressure ridge has dominated the the province for the last several days producing a very stable weather pattern with little to no precipitation, light to moderate SE through SW winds and temperatures ranging from -5oC to +15oC. Freezing levels throughout this period have been unseasonably high.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed.

Snowpack Description

Surface - Crust forming overnight from cooling but becoming moist and unsupportive in the afternoon on all aspects and elevations. Upper - Snow is beginning to warm, continues to settle and bond to rain crusts that were formed and buried in November. Mid - Well settled. Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast

A change is in the air for BC. A Pacific warm front will reach the BC coast by Saturday bringing with it moderate precipitation and light to moderate winds in a westerly flow. Mixing of lower layers of atmosphere should mean a reprieve from the fog and temperature inversion. Fri - 0.5-7 mm of precipitation. Winds light to moderate W to NW Freezing levels of 480-2000 m Sat - 8-25 mm of precipitation. Winds light to moderate NW to SW Freezing levels of 700-2200 m Sun - 2-10 mm of precipitation. Winds light to moderate WSW Freezing levels of 750-2200 m

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow at higher elevations over the weekend combined with moderate winds from westerly directions could possibly produce large slab avalanches in wind loaded pockets in the alpine and at treeline ridge tops.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3