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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 12th, 2015–Jan 13th, 2015
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Staying safe involves careful consideration during this "drought" of fresh soft snow. Stay conservative in your terrain choices.

Confidence

Good - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

No major weather systems in sight for the near future, but flurries may produce small amount of precipitation. The next pacific system is forecast for Thursday and Friday. Freezing levels should remain around 1000m with a spike to over 2000m on Wednesday, then returning to the 1000m level

Avalanche Summary

In general, avalanche activity has tapered-off dramatically. However, an anomalous size 2 slab avalanche was skier triggered last week on a steep, north-facing alpine slope. The exact failure plane is not known, although the depth of the crown (50-100 cm) suggest it may have been a persistent weakness. Skier triggering of deeper weaknesses will remain unlikely. Current moderate temperatures should promote bonding of the old surfaces, although small wind slabs are possible in places where recent light snow has accumulated.

Snowpack Summary

A thick supportive surface crust has capped the snowpack with a variety of older snow surfaces In the middle of the snowpack there's a mid-December surface hoar or crust/facet weak layers. These are now typically buried at least 100cm below the surface. The old surface hoar layer may be found in sheltered shady areas at and below treeline, while the slightly deeper crust/facet layer is expected to be more widespread and variable.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Pockets of wind-blown snow are the spots to watch out for now.  Those little patches of soft snow drifted into north facing and shaded places may not yet be bonded well. A small avalanche might trigger a deep instability.
Avoid steep convexities.>Be aware of thin areas where human-triggering may be possible and may propagate to deeper instabilities.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 3 - 5