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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 27th, 2012–Mar 28th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Expect flurries to build, with freezing levels reaching 1200m in the afternoon. We could see up to 20cm of new snow with southerly winds up to 50km/h. Thursday / Friday: Continued stormy conditions, with moderate and at times heavy precipitation. Freezing levels should reach 1000m each afternoon with continued moderate to strong southerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity includes loose moist sluffs to size 2.0 from daytime warming as well as isolated natural cornice releases to size 2.0. Thin windslabs up to size 1.5 have also been seen.

Snowpack Summary

The recent warm, clear weather has left us with an aggressive melt freeze crust on solar aspects well into the alpine while shady, dead north slopes have grown some small surface hoar and remain powdery. Minor accumulations of new snow now overlie these surfaces. Increasing southerly winds are beginning to build new windslabs in lee locations at ridgecrest. Cornices loom in the alpine and continue to grow under the current conditions. The vast amount of recent storm snow continues to settle and bond while deeper in the snowpack the persistent weakness from mid February remain a lingering concern due to continued sudden planar test results.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New windslabs are growing at ridgecrest over the slick melt freeze crust. Some thin windslabs formed in unusual places from downflow winds associated with the warm temperatures on the weekend; these will now be disguised by the new snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Cornices

Cornices are very large and may become more fragile with the increased load and wind.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 6