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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2016–Jan 14th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Touchy avalanche conditions are expected to persist for a couple of days due to a layer of buried surface hoar.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Mainly cloudy with sunny periods and intermittent flurries, light southwest winds becoming easterly, freezing levels between 1200m and 1500m. Friday: mainly clear and dry with light southerly winds and a freezing level of 1000m. Saturday: the next storm is expected to bring 5-10cm through the day with slight to moderate south winds and a freezing level of 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

It sounds like the storm snow is starting to be reactive to skier triggering at treeline and in the alpine.  We've receive reports of skier accidental avalanches from the area around Whistler and Avalanche control produced numerous small slab avalanches as well as some larger cornice collapses.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40cm of new snow is sitting a widespread layer of surface hoar on sheltered and shady slopes at all elevations or a sun crust on steep solar. Between 10 and 20 cm below this is a second buried weak layer again consisting of a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects in the alpine or well-developed surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and lower elevations. Deeper still, the mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallow snowpack areas that may be more faceted. Bellow 1400m rain may have saturated the upper snowpack. Moderate southerly winds have formed soft slabs in lee features at treeline and in the alpine.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The recent snow is settling into a soft slab that is sitting above surface hoar in many places. I would tread carefully for a little while longer to see how the snowpack reacts.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3