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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2020–Jan 17th, 2020
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Uncertainty on how the snowpack will react to the transition back to tolerable temperatures, caution and a dose of dubiety would be prudent before stepping out into big terrain.

Weather Forecast

The arctic air is on the retreat as a series of warm, moist fronts travel inland to the southern forecast region. Warming air aloft will likely trap cold air in the valleys. Light precipitation will occur during the air-mass transition to a SW flow.

Find the Alberta Rockies weather synopsis here: Mountain Weather Forecast

Snowpack Summary

Light snowfall through the region over surface faceting. That faceting morphosis will be more pronounced in shallow HS areas. Upper pack settled and overlays a weakening mid-pack comprised of varied facet forms. This provides some questionable bridging over the basal facets and DH. HS average at TL: ~150cm.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed or reported

Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable on Friday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New, building wind slab with variable loading depending on location. 

  • Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

The strength of the bridging over the basal weakness will determine it's sensitivity to triggers. Deep penetrating cold has weakened shallow areas and may be more susceptible to triggering and propagation.

  • Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls
  • Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3