Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to extremely variable snowpack conditions reported through the region.

The forecast is marked by a nice diurnal temperature swing with the freezing level rising progressively higher each day and then returning to valley bottom at night which is all well and good. Things change Friday night when the freezing level is expected to go to 2300 m(ish) and stay there through Saturday evening. Get the cold snow while you can.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Freezing Level at valley bottom, light southwest wind at lower elevations, moderate to strong northwest wind at ridge top, no significant snowfall expected.

WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level starting at valley bottom rising to about 1500 m, light southwest wind at lower elevations, moderate to strong northwest wind at ridge top, no precipitation expected.

THURSDAY: A few clouds in the AM, clear skies after lunch, freezing level starting at valley bottom rising to about 1800 m, light to moderate southwest wind at lower elevations, strong northwest wind at ridge top, no precipitation expected.

FRIDAY: Mostly clear skies, freezing level starting near valley bottom rising to about 2300 m, light to moderate west/southwest wind, no precipitation expected.

We're short on post storm observations, but control work produced storm slabs to size 1.5 Monday and Tuesday that were most problematic near ridge crest.  

The most recent deep persistent slab activity we know about is described in this MIN report from February 11 and this MIN report on February 9th. This layer may become reactive again with a large trigger (like a cornice failure) or a sharp change in weather. 

The Sunday/Monday storm produced 10 to 35 cm of storm snow which now rests on a variety of old surfaces including a firm crust on solar aspects, soft faceted snow, possibly surface hoar in sheltered areas, and old wind slabs near ridge crest. The new snow has been formed into variable wind slabs in exposed terrain features, especially those near ridge crest.

A thick rain crust sits 30-60 cm below the surface and can be found up to 2100 m. Avalanche activity was last observed at the faceting interface between this crust and overlying snow on February 17.

The mid-pack is well settled and strong, but the base of the snowpack contains basal facets that are most prominent in shallow rocky start zones.

• Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.