Avalanche Forecast

Monday night: Increasing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a second round of flurries bringing 10-20 cm of new snow, increasing again overnight. Strong southwest winds increasing over the day and again overnight. Treeline high temperatures around 0 as freezing levels rise from 1400 to 1900 metres over the day.

Wednesday: Cloudy with continuing heavy snowfall bringing 15-35 cm of new snow and 2-day storm totals to 50-100 cm. Moderate southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -3 with freezing levels around 1400 metres.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light west winds. Treeline high temperatures around -7.

A consistent storm pattern has given the snowpack little time to stabilize between snowfalls. Heavy snowfall, strong winds, and rising freezing levels will layer increasingly large and reactive storm slabs across the region over the coming days. Both the new snow interface and other recent (deeper) storm interfaces have potential to act as failure planes in forecast avalanche activity.

15-30 cm of new is expected in the region by end of day Tuesday. Stong winds and rising freezing levels will contribute to the new snow rapidly forming slabs that will increase in reactivity and destructive potential over the day.  

The new snow will add to light amounts that already exist over recent wind slabs and otherwise wind-affected surfaces at higher elevations. It will continue to bury a recent crust below treeline. A new surface crust may form below about 1800 metres as freezing levels rise and fall during the storm.

The mid and lower snowpack contains multiple crusts that seem to be holding strong. Forecast snowfall and associated natural avalanche activity will test them.

Snowpack depths are currently around 100 cm below treeline, but shrink rapidly below 1600 m. Alpine snowpacks are expected to be around 140 cm deep, but could be 200 cm or more in areas with more snowfall or wind-transported snow. The deepest snowpacks this season have been reported near Blue River and Valemount.

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
• Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.