Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Check steep or confined lines for wind slab before committing. There remains potential for human triggered wind slabs on all aspects. As always, give cornices a wide berth from above and below.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.
Weather Forecast
The northernmost reaches of the region will catch the fringe of a system bringing heavy precip to the central coast, accumulating 30-40mm by the end of the day Wednesday. Elsewhere in the region may see some flurries.
Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a few flurries. Freezing level 800 m. Strong southwesterly wind above 2500 m..
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a few flurries. Freezing level 1300 m. Strong southerly wind above 2000 m.
Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud. Freezing level rising to 1700 m. Strong southerly wind.
Friday: 30-40 cm of new snow. Freezing level 1300 m. Strong southerly wind.
Avalanche Summary
No new reports since Saturday when natural and human triggered avalanche activity quieted down but cornices continued to be reactive to explosives size 2-2.5. Minor pinwheeling was observed on steep solar aspects in the afternoon.
Snowpack Summary
20 cm of snow sits over a layer that may consist of of facets, spotty surface hoar, and/or crusts on steep solar aspects and below 1500 m. Recent wind of varying direction has blown this snow into wind slabs on a variety of aspects.
A weak layer buried in mid-February is composed of a crust, facets or spotty surface hoar depending on elevation/aspect, and is now down 50-80 cm. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer. Large triggers, such as an avalanche in motion, cornice fall, or intense loading from snow, wind and/or a rapid rise in temperature could awaken these deeper weak layers.
The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong in most areas.
Terrain and Travel
- Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
- Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
A modest supply of new snow has fueled the continued formation of thin but potentially reactive wind slabs recently. Older wind slabs exist on a variety of aspects and may remain reactive where they sit over facets.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices are large, looming, and require extra caution under the current conditions.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5