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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 11th, 2022–Mar 12th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Vancouver Island.

Avalanche danger will increase as new snow and wind form fresh slabs that may slide easily on a slippery crust.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 60-70 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 700-1000 m.

Saturday: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5-10 cm, 40-50 km/h southeast wind, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Sunday: Overnight snowfall around 5-10 cm then cloudy with sunny periods, 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Monday: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 cm in most areas, 40 cm closer to the coast, 60-70 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches were reported. Looking forward, new slabs are expected to progressively form as the snow accumulates. The slabs may be easy to trigger if the snow doesn't bond well to the hard melt-freeze crust.

Snowpack Summary

New snow falls with strong southwest wind. Storm totals of 15-30 cm are expected by Saturday evening in most areas. The snow falls onto a widespread hard melt-freeze crust found across the region. The crust is thickest at low elevations and on sun-exposed slopes. The crust may not exist on high alpine terrain on north aspects. The new snow may not bond well to this crust.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Below treeline, snowpack depths are below threshold for avalanches in many areas. Open areas such as cut blocks and avalanche paths with uniform snow cover still have avalanche potential and should be treated with regular caution.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and strong southwest wind are building fresh storm slabs. These slabs could be touchy, particularly in wind loaded features and where the new snow sits on a hard and smooth melt-freeze crust.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2