Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Avalanche danger will increase as new snow and wind form fresh slabs that may slide easily on a slippery crust.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
Friday night: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 60-70 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level 700-1000 m.
Saturday: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5-10 cm, 40-50 km/h southeast wind, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1000 m.
Sunday: Overnight snowfall around 5-10 cm then cloudy with sunny periods, 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1300 m.
Monday: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 cm in most areas, 40 cm closer to the coast, 60-70 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1500 m.
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanches were reported. Looking forward, new slabs are expected to progressively form as the snow accumulates. The slabs may be easy to trigger if the snow doesn't bond well to the hard melt-freeze crust.
Snowpack Summary
New snow falls with strong southwest wind. Storm totals of 15-30 cm are expected by Saturday evening in most areas. The snow falls onto a widespread hard melt-freeze crust found across the region. The crust is thickest at low elevations and on sun-exposed slopes. The crust may not exist on high alpine terrain on north aspects. The new snow may not bond well to this crust.
The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.
Below treeline, snowpack depths are below threshold for avalanches in many areas. Open areas such as cut blocks and avalanche paths with uniform snow cover still have avalanche potential and should be treated with regular caution.
Terrain and Travel
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
- Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
New snow and strong southwest wind are building fresh storm slabs. These slabs could be touchy, particularly in wind loaded features and where the new snow sits on a hard and smooth melt-freeze crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2