Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 12th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
Grant Statham,
High freezing levels and lots of wind have created tricky conditions. The surface snow is dense and the persistent slab problem appears to be activating in new ways across the region. Note some new patterns in avalanche activity are emerging.
Summary
Weather Forecast
The strong southwesterly flow continues for the next 24-hours with strong winds, freezing levels to 2000 m and another 10-20 cm of snow (rain low elevations). This changes at the end of the day Thursday following a cold front, when a ridge of high pressure builds, the skies clear and the temperatures drop by 10 degrees.
Snowpack Summary
Warm temperatures, winds, 10 cm of snow and light rain to ~2000 m have created dense windslabs that overlie facets from the Xmas cold snap and produce moderate test results. At lower elevations the middle of the snowpack is facetted and combined with the Dec 2 layer in Kootenay is now becoming active. This will continue through Thursday.
Avalanche Summary
A new pattern is emerging. SSV had a skier controlled size 2.5 starting at 2500m with a windslab over facets. It ran full path and dug deeper into facets low in the path. Lake Louise had repeated windslabs from alpine terrain that pulled deeper slabs on facets at the lower elevations. Skier accidental size 2 below TL ran full path at LL today also.
Confidence
Problems
Wind Slabs
Windslab are all over the place in alpine terrain and they overlie weak facets formed during the Xmas cold snap. It would be easy to trigger a windslab right now, so avoid leeward loaded terrain. Stick to ridges or uniform, non-loaded slopes.
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
The problem is evolving and is expanding further into the entire BYK region (see avalanche activity table). Facets formed during the Xmas cold snap are failing easily below treeline. This seems to be activating with the warmer temps and wind.
- Forecasters are operating with alot of uncertainty at this time.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 13th, 2022 4:00PM
