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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 29th, 2022–Jan 30th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

New snow on arriving midday Sunday with strong SW wind will increase our wind slab hazard. Pay attention to the changing conditions and avoid wind loaded areas.

Good skiing can still be found in protected areas below tree line.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Flurries with 10cm snow on the Icefields parkway.

Alpine High -7 C.

Ridge wind SW 15-35 km/hr

Freezing level valley bottom.

Monday: Mainly Cloudy with scattered flurries.

Precipitation: 4cm with potential for higher amounts on the eastern side of the range.

Alpine High -7 C

Wind North - West 15 km/h gusting 45km/h.

Tuesday: isolated flurries

Snowpack Summary

Surface condition extremely variable with widespread wind effect & scouring in alpine from strong-extreme SW wind. Wind slab in specific areas tree line & above. A thin sun crust exists on steep solar aspects up to 2300m. The midpack has two layers of concern. The dec 26 facet layer is buried 20-30cm down with a weak crust 40-60cm below 1950m.

Avalanche Summary

A size 3 natural avalanche occurred on the West aspect of Mt. Wilson at approx. 2300m around Jan 27. We suspect this was a persistent slab with increased sensitivity due to strong solar input.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Sunday's snowfall snow will be accompanied by strong SW winds which will create a fresh wind slab at all elevations.

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Persistent slabs sit over different weak layers depending on elevation & aspect. Above 1950m, a buried facet layer down 20-30cm is the primary concern. Below 1950m, a faceting crust down 40-60 is presenting a more stubborn version of the same problem

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.
  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3