Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 9th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs.
Grant Statham,
Go for shady aspects right now, the snow is cold and dry here. The sunny side of the mountain holds buried crusts that are proving unpredictable in their location, the overlying slab and the likelihood of triggering. Uncertainty demands wide margins.
Summary
Weather Forecast
The next few days will warm slowly as the weather pattern changes. The NW flow continues, but a low pressure system will cross the area starting Thursday bringing trace amounts of snow, light to moderate winds and temperatures a few degrees warmer each day. No significant inputs to change the avalanche hazard are expected for the next few days.
Snowpack Summary
5-10 cm of low density snow sits over a sun crust on steep solar aspects that exists up to about 2600 m. North winds overnight Wed may develop wind effect and small windslabs in the alpine. February 16 sun crust down 30-40 cm on west, south and east aspects. January 30 facet or sun crust interface is down 50-80 cm. Lower snowpack is well settled.
Avalanche Summary
On Tues a skier triggered a large persistent slab (size 3.5) on the southeast slope of Vermillion Peak. No involvement was reported but this is a wake-up to the potential on this crust. Also on Tues we received a report of a cornice triggered size 2.5 slab avalanche on Mt. Carnarvon in Yoho - this one also likely ran on the crust. Note the pattern.
Confidence
Problems
Persistent Slabs
The crust/facet layer down 20-40cm on solar slopes at treeline and above has produced a size 3.5 skier accidental avalanche on Mar 8. Give it a wide berth. The buried crust will be more prominent on solar aspects, and does not exist on north aspects.
- Use extra caution on solar slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 10th, 2022 4:00PM
