Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Avoid wind-exposed slopes and you'll likely find cold, blower pow. Wind slabs are the main avalanche concern. Consider that ANY problem could get amplified into an emergency on these cold, short days.
Confidence
High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
Weather Forecast
Cold arctic air will persist until Saturday afternoon. The weekend weather could be quite wild, and vary greatly through the forecast region.Â
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. No new snow expected. Moderate to strong northwest wind. Treeline temperatures around -8 C.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light to moderate northwest wind with possible strong winds at higher elevations. treeline temperatures around -7 C.
SATURDAY: Overcast. 2-10 cm of snow expected. Extreme southwest wind. Freezing levels rising to 500m
SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. 15-50 cm of snow expected overnight, with another 0-15 through the day. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 1100 m overnight, dropping back to 500 during the day.Â
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, our Vancouver Island field team reported a size 1, naturally triggered windslab avalanche in the Mt. Adrian area. It was 10-20 cm deep and started just below a ridge top. You can find more info from them on their facebook page, on instagram, or on the Mountain Information Network.
Windslabs can be most reactive when they are fresh, so continually evaluate conditions as you travel.Â
No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Earlier this week there were some reports of small (size 1) loose dry avalanches (sluffs) and some small isolated wind slab avalanches.Â
Snowpack Summary
Plenty of soft, light snow available for transport, and recent northwesterly winds have created wind slabs in atypical cross-loading and reverse loading patterns.Â
Sometimes wind slab stabilizes with time, or facets out with cold temperatures. In this case, continued wind and top-ups of cold, low density snow keeps building fresh slabs.
30-50 cm now sits over a freezing rain crust below 1500 m and above this elevation it may rest on a layer of large surface hoar crystals. Our field team reported easy shears on this layer in their MIN report last week.Â
The lower snowpack is generally well bonded.
Terrain and Travel
- Approach steep, open and/or sparsely treed slopes cautiously.
- Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
- Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
- Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
With plenty of soft, light snow available for wind transport, expect to see wind slab formation in the alpine and open areas near treeline.
Continued north or northwest wind means atypical cross-loading and reverse loading patterns. Be especially cautious near ridgetops.
Aspects: North East, East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2