Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, localized cloud cover. Possible trace of snow expected. Light north wind with periods of moderate northwest at higher elevations. Freezing levels fall to valley bottom. Alpine low around -7 C.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light southwest winds trending to strong northwest at higher elevations. Freezing levels at valley bottom overnight, rising to 800 m by the afternoon. Alpine high around -5 C.

Friday: Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Moderate southwest wind trending to extreme west at higher elevations, possibly up to 100 km/h. Freezing levels at valley bottom overnight, rising to between 1000 m and 1500 m by the afternoon. Possible temperature inversion bringing alpine highs up to -2 C.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light southwest wind trending to strong west at higher elevations. Temperature inversion breaking down. Freezing levels at valley bottom, rising to 1000 m by the afternoon.

On Tuesday, a professional operation west of Pincher Creek reported a few small, rider triggered windslab avalanches in wind-loaded features.

Neighbouring Waterton National Park reported a few small to large natural windslab avalanches from steep, alpine features, and a couple of small, rider triggered windslab avalanches on reverse loaded, steep rolls.

On the surface, expect to find a thin suncrust on solar aspects, especially in the high alpine, and below treeline, where temperatures may have gotten above zero over the weekend. Surface hoar has been growing in sheltered areas, around the elevation of any valley cloud. Check out this Mountain Information Network post from our South Rockies field team for a summary of the conditions in Elkford on Tuesday.

Moderate winds have redistributed any snow available for transport. 10-20cm of wind slabs can be found in lee features, while windward terrain below 2100 m is likely stripped down to the January 12th melt-freeze crust.

One common theme throughout the region is that the mid-pack is well settled above the deeper December crust/facet interface which is currently the primary concern in the snowpack.

The early December crust is now generally down 80-150 cm. This layer is found widespread through the region but with varying test results. Recent snowpack tests have shown more reactivity in shallower snowpack areas. This indicates that there is potential to trigger this weak layer from a thin spot which may propagate to a thicker slab within the snowpack, creating a very large avalanche. Daytime warming, solar radiation, and cornice fall could all play a role in triggering low probability, high consequence deep persistent slab avalanches. 

• If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
• Carefully evaluate bigger terrain features on an individual basis before committing to them.
• Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
• In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.