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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 19th, 2019–Dec 20th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Significant amounts of wind and precipitation forecasted for Friday and Saturday. As the precipitation falls the hazard will rise. Expect Highway 93N to be closed Sunday. Ice climbs Weeping Wall and Polar Circus will be closed Saturday and Sunday.

Weather Forecast

"Atmospheric river" setting up to bring moist warm air from the southwest starting early friday morning and persisting through Saturday night. This system will bring moderate to strong south west winds and significant amounts of precipitation. Freezing levels could rise to 1600 meters on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong SW ridge winds continue building varied strength windslabs on lee and crossloaded features at or above treeline. Persistent interfaces layered through the snowpack that might wake as the up to as the 25cm's of new snow forecasted in the next 24 hours accumulates.

Avalanche Summary

A skier accidental size 1 wind slab in an alpine feature was reported today on the south west side of Hilda Ridge. No other avalanches observed on Thursday. Expect to see more avalanche activity Friday and through the weekend.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong SW winds are creating wind slabs in NW to SE lee aspects. Sensitivity expected to be reactive in the immediate future and may wake deeper, weaker interfaces.

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

A few large avalanches were observed during last cycle early in December and we suspect it was on this layer. Triggering the windslab problem has potential to release this lower problem layer.

  • If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

As new snow accumulates, the hazard will increase.

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2