Avalanche Forecast

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Light scattered precipitation is expected for most of the forecast period. On Thursday, 2-4mm of precipitation is forecast with strong southwest winds in the alpine and the possibility of sunny breaks in the afternoon. Another 3-6mm of precipitation is forecast for Thursday overnight and Friday. Afternoon freezing levels are expected to be around 1500m on both Thursday and Friday, and fall to around 1200m on Saturday. A dry period is currently forecast for Friday night with the next pulse of light precipitation on Saturday.

Avalanche observations are very limited at this time of year but there is enough snow for avalanches above around 1700m elevation. On Monday, natural and explosive triggered storm slabs up to size 2 were reported.  The typical slab depth was 25-40cm and wide propagations were reported. Wind loaded features are expected to be the primary concern right now but due to the lack of observations, we cannot yet issue avalanche problems or danger ratings. If you are out in the mountains, please send us your observations and help us improve the forecast.

Early season snowpack observations are still very limited in the region but the threshold for avalanches has been exceeded at treeline and in the alpine. Reports suggest that the snow depth at treeline is typically 110-150cm but a report from the east side of region shows only 80cm at treeline. Around 25cm of recent storm snow is reported to be reactive to snowpack tests and shooting cracks have been observed. The crust from the middle of November is down 50-80cm and the crust from early November is down 80-110cm. The snowpack tapers off drastically below treeline and below around 1700m there is not yet enough snow for avalanches. On the western side of the Lizard Range, the snowpack depth was reported to be 40cm at 1800m elevation.