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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2013–Jan 1st, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation expected. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and  moderate NW ridge top winds. Thursday: Increasing cloud with isolated light snow flurries. Strong westerly winds and freezing levels as high as 1700m. Friday: Snow with 10-15cm of total accumulation expected, particularly east of the divide. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and moderate NW winds.

Avalanche Summary

No significant avalanche observations have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Alpine areas are highly wind-affected with scoured areas, sastrugi, and deep deposits. At treeline, the snowpack is generally well settled, but definitely more stable in the Crowsnest and Elk Valley North than in the Flathead and Elk Valley South where the late-November persistent weakness of surface hoar, crust, and/or facets down 30-70cm has reached the tipping point for rider triggering in a few areas. Check out this video of a recent snowpack test on this layer.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs that formed over the past couple of days are likely limited to the immediate leeward side of ridge crests, but widespread fresh touchy wind slabs are expected to start forming Thursday afternoon.
Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Highmark or enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This is a complex problem because it's different from one drainage to the next.  You need to dig down and figure out if you have a slab on top of the buried surface hoar.  If you find a slab in your riding area a conservative approach is appropriate.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.>Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5