Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 10th, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
cgarritty,
Avalanche Canada
Plenty of recent storm snow is available for Saturday's forecast winds to mould into a serious wind slab problem. Seek out whatever sheltered snow can still be found and avoid exposing yourself to overhead terrain where rapid loading is occurring. Wind slabs may step down to deeper snowpack weaknesses to create large, destructive avalanches.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, a few natural size 3.5 avalanches were observed in wind-loaded alpine features.
On Tuesday, a skier accidental, size 1.5 storm slab avalanche was reported at 1500 m. A size 2, natural windslab avalanche was observed on a northwest aspect at 1400 m.
On Sunday, three very large natural avalanches were observed up to size 4. Two were size 3 persistent slab avalanches on steep north-facing aspects with 750 m wide crowns. A size 3.5-4 deep persistent slab avalanche was also observed. It is suspected this avalanche failed in depth hoar at the base of the snowpack.
See more on the potential of triggering deeper weak layers in our latest Forecasters' Blog.
Snowpack Summary
Thursday's storm brought up to 40 cm of new snow to the Pine Pass area and 10 -20 cm elsewhere in the region. This adds to the 60 to 110 cm of recent storm snow now settling over previously wind-affected surfaces. Below this, a melt-freeze crust is found on sun-exposed slopes and on all aspects below 1600 m.
Several crust/facet/surface hoar layers exist in the upper and middle portions of the snowpack. The most concerning persistent weak layer is at the base of the snowpack from large and weak facets formed in November. This layer is widespread and most likely problematic in steep, rocky alpine and upper treeline terrain.
Weather Summary
Friday night
Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Alpine temperature high of -3 C. Ridge wind southwest 40 gusting 60 km/h. Freezing level 1200 m.
Saturday
Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around -7.
Sunday
Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 10-20 cm of new snow to higher elevations, light rain below 1500 metres. Extreme southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around 0 with freezing levels rising to 1700-1800 metres.
Monday
Cloudy with easing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds shifting west. Treeline high temperatures around -6.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of strong wind.
- Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
- Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Problems
Wind Slabs
In all exposed areas, new snow and strong southwesterly winds are building deep pockets in lees that are reactive to natural and human triggers. Avoid lee and cross-loaded slopes.
If triggered wind slab avalanches may step-down to deeper weak layers and initiate large and destructive avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
A layer of large, weak facets sits near the base of the snowpack. This layer is most prominent in upper treeline and lower alpine elevations. Riders are most likely to trigger an avalanche on this layer in steep, shallow terrain. This layer has recently produced very large natural avalanches see avalanche summary for more information. Your best defence is to stay diligent in choosing low-consequence terrain away from overhead exposure.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Recent large persistent slab avalanche observations are strong evidence that these layers are still an active concern in this region. Numerous problematic weak layers exist in the top meter of the snowpack. Be cautious around steep openings within and near treeline elevations as active loading continues.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 11th, 2023 4:00PM
