Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Thursday: Snow should end overnight Wednesday with storm totals around 10 - 15 cm, having fallen with a moderate SW or W wind. Mixed sun and clouds, dry, temperatures below zero near treeline, except freezing level like to climb with solar radiation. Light to moderate NW wind.Friday: Very similar to Thursday except the wind should stay light from the NW.Saturday: A weak system expected to move in backing the wind to the S, increasing the clouds, light precipitation, and slightly warmer.

From the reports we've received, avalanche activity has slowed right down with colder temperatures and the end of precipitation. Only reports from professionals were of snowballing and thin slabs on steep solar aspects.

25 to 40 cm of snow from the previous storm was blown by strong winds into deeper deposits in lee terrain; the variable and shifting direction of those winds mean a complex pattern of lee and cross-loaded slopes. Rain at lower elevations saturated the snowpack. Colder, below freezing temperatures is turning the wet snow into a frozen crust; however, fresh snow above the rain-soaked layer is like a blanket of insulation and delays the freezing. These recent accumulations overlie crusts on sun-exposed slopes (SE - W aspects) and surface hoar in shaded terrain. Deeper in the snowpack is a facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 70 to 160cm, has been highly variable in terms of reactivity but still shows 'sudden' results in snowpack tests. These layers are still difficult to trust and any avalanche at these deeper, persistent interfaces would be large and destructive.,Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but without a large load on the right piece of terrain, triggering is unlikely.