Warming can reduce the strength of the snowpack. Try not to be complacent just because conditions have been solid for a while.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Light precipitation is expected to end on Thursday and it should be mainly dry and warm until Saturday. The freezing level climbs to 3000 m on Friday. Saturday's storm brings moderate precipitation with the freezing level near 2200m. Winds are moderate from the SW.
Avalanche Summary
Apart from small loose wet sluffs triggered by skiers on steep sunny slopes, no new avalanches have been reported in the past several days.
Snowpack Summary
If any snow arrives on Thursday, it may be shifted by SW winds at high elevations. Lower down the mountain, drizzle may weaken the snow surface layers, adding warmth and weight to the snowpack. Previous snow surfaces are variable and include moist snow, crusts and a little dry snow on high north aspects. The most prominent feature in the snowpack is the thick late-February crust, down 5-20 cm. This crust has been supportive all the way to ridge crest and "capping" the snowpack, keeping riders from stressing any deeper weak layers. There are still weak layers below this crust that we'll continue to monitor. As temperatures become very warm over the next couple of days, be alert to whether this supportive capping layer is breaking down. Consequences go up if it does.
pgoddard,
Avalanche Canada
