Avalanche Forecast

Good

A series of frontal systems will send waves of moderate- heavy precipitation amounts accompanied by strong-extreme winds through the forecast period. The model runs seem to be in good agreement with timing and precipitation amounts.Saturday night: Snow amounts 20-25 cm. Ridgetop winds blowing strong from the SW gusting to extreme values. Sunday: Snow amounts 15-20 cm. Alpine temperatures near -7.0. Strong SW ridgetop winds and freezing levels near the valley bottom.Monday: Snow amounts 10-15 cm. Alpine temperatures near -6.0. Ridgetop winds moderate from the South gusting strong. Tuesday: Snow amounts 15 cm accompanied by light southerly winds with strong gusts.

Numerous size 2 slab avalanches have been easily triggered by light loads (weight of a person) and by explosives. With more snow and strong-extreme winds forecast, the size and destructive potential of the new building storm slab will increase and avalanche danger will be high.

Between 80 and 140 cm of recent snowfall overlies a variety of old snow surfaces which were buried on February 10th. These old surfaces consist of weak surface facets, surface hoar (more predominant at treeline and below treeline elevations), a scoured crust, wind press, or any combination of these.Professionals are expressing particular concern for the combination of buried facets on a crust being unusually reactive at treeline and below. Snowpack testing at these elevations are showing easy sudden planar results on the facet/crust combo buried down 45 cm. Reports of whumphing and widespread avalanche activity further indicate a poor bond between the new snow and these old surfaces.Strong to extreme winds are shifting the new snow into deeper, reactive wind slabs in exposed terrain.The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled. Basal facets and depth hoar are likely to exist in some parts of the region, but triggering has become unlikely.