Freezing levels and solar radiation are somewhat uncertain for the next few days. If the sun is out and the snow is moist or wet, avalanches will be more likely.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A weak ridge of high pressure will maintain mainly dry and progressively cooler conditions for the forecast period. Tuesday: Very light precipitation and generally overcast skies / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 2000m Wednesday: Mainly clear skies / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 1500m Thursday: Mainly clear skies / Light northwest winds / Freezing level at 2000m
Avalanche Summary
No avalanches were reported on Monday.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 50 cm of settled storm snow has been saturated by rain up to about 2100m. Surfaces may be moist or refrozen, depending on current temperatures. At the highest elevations you might find dense, stubborn wind slabs in lee terrain. New cornice development has also been noted. The older storm snow overlies a hard crust and/or surface hoar layer which formed in early January. The bond at this interface will be largely elevation dependant as rain may have penetrated the snowpack enough to dissolve the crust in many areas. At higher elevations where snow has fallen, this interface may still be reactive although no recent avalanches have been reported at this interface.Deeper snowpack weaknesses seem to have become unreactive, and should become even less of a concern if the forecast cooling trend verifies.
Problems
Loose Wet
With slight cooling and overcast skies forecast for Tuesday, loose wet avalanches will become less likely. Use increased caution if the sun makes an appearance.
Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow is moist or wet.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be cautious of wet sluffing in steep terrain.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Cornices have grown with recent storms and are likely fragile due to more recent warming. At higher elevations a large cornice fall may be what it takes to trigger a larger avalanche on weak layers which formed earlier in the season.
Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 27th, 2015 2:00PM
