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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 2nd, 2015–Dec 3rd, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Avalanche danger increasing to HIGH with the forecast storm overnight.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Strong southerly winds combined with heavy precipitation and rising freezing levels are forecast overnight. This storm is expected to continue during the day Thursday. Expect 30 70 mm of precipitation by Thursday evening. Friday should be a bit of a break between storms. Another warm, wet, and windy storm is forecast for Saturday. The models are disagreeing on how warm this storm will be, but they do agree that it will pack a lot of moisture. We should have a better idea of Saturday freezing levels by tomorrow.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. I suspect that new storm slabs are bonding poorly in some areas and may be easy to trigger with light additional loads.

Snowpack Summary

Below you can see a description of the "foundation" of the snowpack, everything is about to change with a series of snow and wind events forecast over the next few days. Forecast storm snow is likely to build slabs, which may bond poorly to the current surfaces including hard slabs, crusts, facets and surface hoar. The snowpack is highly variable across different aspects and elevations. There is anywhere from 30-150 cm on the ground. Previous northerly outflow winds scoured upwind slopes back to a firm crust, and created wind slabs on lee aspects, which are gradually gaining strength. Shallow snowpack areas are rotten (facetted).

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy precipitation and strong winds are forecast to continue to develop storm slabs on all aspects. Storm slabs may not bond well to old surfaces, and may be triggered naturally or by light additional loads.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5