Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bow Valley, Ghost, Highwood Pass, Kananaskis, North 40, Spray - KLakes.
The snowpack is very tricky right now and sensitive to triggering. Careful route selection and intimate understanding of the snowpack is essential for safe travel.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported today. However this last Sunday, three skier triggered avalanches occurred, one of which there was a fatality. Check the Min reports for further details.
Snowpack Summary
5-20cm of recent snow overlies previous wind slabs and sun crust on solar aspects. Expect moist snow on solar aspects if the sun comes out. The winds on Tuesday were moving snow along ridges, so expect a new generation of wind slabs on lee features.
The snowpack is quite complex as all of the following layers are possible to trigger avalanches:
Buried sun crusts on solar aspects down 20cm will provide a good sliding layer for the new snow to slide if the sun comes out. Be aware of what is above you.
This last weekends wind slabs are now buried up to 20cm and have possibly been one of the triggers to wake up deeper layers in the snowpack.
The February 2 crust is down approximately 70-100cm and has started to facet out around itself, providing a good sliding layer. This layer was the trigger for most of the avalanches on Sunday.
The basal facets found near the bottom of the snowpack have been triggered by failures of the above layers.
Careful route selection is key as well as taking a closer look at the snowpack to understand where all the weaknesses lie.
GHOST FORECAST AREA
The Ghost area has more snow than usual. With this warming trend, pay close attention of what is above you. Wet loose avalanches are possible in this forecast region so ice climbers should choose routes appropriately.
Weather Summary
Wednesday will be a mix of cloud, flurries(maybe 5cm) and a bit of sun in the afternoon. Temperatures in the alpine are expected to climb to a balmy -2c. For Wednesday only, the winds will be from the North at 30km/hr.
The weekend is looking rather warm and avalanche conditions will likely increase.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
This problem covers the buried wind slabs from the weekend and any wind slabs that have formed on Tuesday.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Persistent Slabs
This layer is breaking down at the upper limits. At 2250m it is much weaker than last week.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
Avalanches may step down to the weaker deep basal layers. If this layer is involved, expect full path avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5