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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 24th, 2019–Jan 25th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast Inland.

Rising temperatures could mean that avalanche hazard increases throughout the day. Choose more conservative terrain if significant warming is experienced, especially at lower elevations where a surface hoar layer could catch people by surprise.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy / west winds, 10-20 km/h / alpine low temperature near -5 / freezing level 700 m / alpine temperature inversionFRIDAY - Mainly cloudy / northwest winds, 10-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / freezing level 1500 m / alpine temperature inversionSATURDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / west winds, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near +5 / freezing level 3000 m SUNDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / northwest winds, 40-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near +2 / freezing level 2000 m / possible alpine temperature inversion

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday several natural and human triggered storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 were reported on north and east aspects in all elevation bands. There are two South Coast Inland MIN reports from Wednesday that outline some of this avalanche activity as well as some snowpack tests. (Steep Creek) (Reactive Surface Hoar)A few natural and human triggered avalanches to size 1.5 were reported in the region on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of recent storm snow is likely sitting on a sun crust on south facing slopes, a melt freeze crust below approximately 1700 m on all aspects, and surface hoar (feathery crystals) in areas sheltered from the wind at all elevations. The recent snow may not bond well to these weak layers. In some areas, another layer of surface hoar that was buried near the end of December is down approximately 60 to 120 cm in sheltered areas around treeline elevations. There have been no recent reports of avalanches on this layer, but a large trigger such as cornice fall may still have the potential to trigger avalanches on this layer.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The recent snow may not bond well to underlying layers. Slabs are likely to be most reactive in wind loaded areas, especially as temperatures rise.
Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking. Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2