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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 12th, 2019–Jan 13th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Warm air and sunny skies should prevail at higher elevations. The amount of warming and its influence on the snowpack is uncertain. Observe for signs of snowpack warming, travel conservatively, and expect rapid changes to the snowpack over the day.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies, inversion conditions with above freezing layer between 1500 m and 2400 m.SUNDAY: Mostly clear skies, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -2 to 1 C, inversion conditions with above-freezing layer between 1600 m and 2300 m.MONDAY: Clear skies, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -2 to 1 C, inversion conditions with above-freezing layer between 1800 m and 2200 m.TUESDAY: Clear skies, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level dropping to below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

A couple small wind slabs and storm slabs were triggered naturally and by skiers on Friday. They were mostly in alpine terrain and 20 to 50 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

Warm air temperatures and sunny skies at higher elevations may impact the snow surface. You may find dry snow, moist snow, or possibly a frozen melt-freeze crust, depending on local air temperatures. Wind slabs are still being reported as widespread and reactive to human traffic in alpine terrain. Below around 1500 m, the snow surface is moist from recent light rain, which will freeze into a crust when temperatures cool.There are a few deeper weaknesses in the snowpack. Professionals are still tracking a layer around 150 to 200 cm deep, composed of sugary faceted grains, feathery surface hoar, and a sun crust. The base of the snowpack may also still be composed of weak faceted grains in parts of the region. The likelihood of triggering these layers may increase with the warm air incoming this weekend. These layers would most likely be triggered by humans in areas where the snowpack is shallow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

There is uncertainty in how much the warm air and sunny skies will affect the snowpack, but it could make slabs reactive to human traffic. Observe for signs of warming, like moist snow, pinwheeling, or sluffing. Back-off if you notice instability.
Cornices may be touchy; stay well-back on ridges and avoid travelling beneath them.Observe signs of instability: whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.Avoid steep slopes on warm and sunny days.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5