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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2022–Jan 16th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Careful evaluation of wind slabs is recommended for Lee slopes.

The potential for large avalanches remains a low probability would be a high consequence event likely occurring on a persistent weak layer down 40-60cm.

Maligne Lake road remains closed.

Weather Forecast

Sunday will be cloudy with flurries, maybe 4cm of snow, -7C, and light SW winds. Monday might bring 12cm of snow, -7 to -3C, light gusting moderate SW winds, and 1600m freezing level. Tuesday is cloudy with flurries, little snow accumlation, -14 to -9, and light winds.

Snowpack Summary

25 cm of snow from the Jan 12th storm is settling in with slightly warmer temperatures. The top 40 cm is compromised of Wind Slabs particularly in open areas above Tree Line. The mid snowpack is faceted with a persistent weak layer buried 40-70cm down. Basal facets and depth hoar can be found at the base of snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Saturdays Icefields patrol had good alpine visibility but no new naturals were noted. Below treeline showed some limited activity from the past 48 hours but no large avalanches. Jan 13th explosives control resulted in several wind and persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5.

Confidence

Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slab development will continue with moderate to strong SW winds. Investigate its bonding to the old snow surface before committing. 

  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

A persistent slab sits over 2 different layers depending on elevation and aspect. Below 1950m, the layer is the Dec 1st rain crust roughly 40-60cm down. Above 1950m, facets buried  are the primary layer of concern.

  • Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5