Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 2nd, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.
swerner,
Avalanche Canada
Reactive storm slabs likely exist at treeline and in the alpine. They could be touchier on leeward slopes due to wind loading.
At lower elevations, loose wet avalanches are possible with high freezing levels and a rain soaked snow pack.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
Change is in the air with an unstable airmass bringing convective, spring-like weather. Generally, overcast skies and a drying trend will exist Thursday. The ridge should be set up by Friday with clearing skies and light northwest winds.  Â
Wednesday Night: 5-10 cm of new snow above 1000 m and rain below. Freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and moderate southwesterly wind at ridgetop.Â
Thursday: Cloudy skies. Light northwest wind and freezing levels 1000 m.Â
Friday: Sunny skies with spring-like (diurnal) freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and rising to 1500 m during the day. Ridgetop wind moderate from the northwest.Â
Avalanche Summary
No new reports on Wednesday by 4 pm.Â
On Tuesday, numerous size 1 wet loose avalanches were reported at below treeline elevations. Poor visibility made for limited alpine observations.Â
On Monday, our field team observed widespread natural avalanche activity size 1-2.5. A skier-triggered size 2 storm slab was reported at Mt Cain on Sunday in this MIN.
Snowpack Summary
The recent storm snow is topped with a thin freezing rain crust and 5 cm of recent moist snow. Within the 40-60 cm of new snow, a wet layer on the surface is stacked on top of lower density, dry snow. This configuration is referred to as upside-down and is often associated with short-term instability while the soft bottom settles. Above 1900 m, the surface remains dry and has seen extensive wind effect, with extremely variable depths and areas of hard wind slab.
The storm snow sits over a thin layer of weak crystals on a thick, widespread rain crust which makes a great sliding surface for avalanches. This crust is capping a well settled and strong mid and lower snowpack.Â
Terrain and Travel
- Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
Problems
Storm Slabs
30 to 60 cm of recent storm snow has blanketed upper elevations. The likelihood of triggering a storm slab increases in steep or convex terrain and in wind loaded areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Lower elevations host a rain soaked snowpack. Loose wet avalanches are easily triggered from steeper terrain features at treeline and below treeline.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 3rd, 2022 4:00PM
