Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 8th, 2021 1:00AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

Jesse Percival, VIAC

Vancouver Island.

Confidence: High , Daily terrain and snowpack observation during the past forecast period. A well documented (view our Instagram page) natural avalanche was filmed on a North aspect , this wind slab was large size 2 . During both Saturday and Sunday, many solar induces Natural loose wet avalanches on steep solar aspects where observed. Most where size 1 with a few size 2. One very large loose wet was observed on a large south aspect feature Mount Kusum and was size 2.5 or greater. During travel in wests aspect terrain between 1600 meters and 1100m , the forecast team experience settlement and cracking around ski, this was below the 1300 meter elevation mark.

Summary

Past Weather

Previous warm weather has been followed by cooling temperatures with freezing levels nearing seas level and moderate North west wind. The norther region of the forecast area ( north of sitika river) received 20 cms of new snow and this was found at 300m and above. During Saturday and Sunday, ridgetop wind transport was evident as available snow was at times being transported to south east aspects. Sun was in full effect during periods of clear skies, direct solar aspects became warm and numerous Loose dry avalanches ran naturally.

Weather Forecast

A strengthening artic high pressure is entering the region bringing to the forecast areas, cool temperatures, clearing sky , and moderate to strong North West wind. The possibility of power flurries delivering daily light amounts to isolated areas exists, this seems to be focused to the southern areas of our region.Monday: No new precipitation, Winds Light to Moderate from the North West, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.Tuesday: 0-5 cm, Winds light from the South East, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time high of 600 meters.Wednesday: 0-5 cm, Winds Moderate from the North East, Freezing levels at seas level with a daytime a high of 500 meters.

Terrain Advice

Be cautious when route-finding and avoid convex roll features.Seek low angle terrain that is well supported. Avoid travel on South aspect terrain during the period of warming and direct sun exposure.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths vary from 350 cm in norther regions to 500cm plus in the mid and southerly region of the forecast area. They do all have one similar characteristic and that is the January 23, 2021 PWL. This layer can be found between 60 and 100 cm deep and has been reactive to extensive testing. Moderate compression testing produces sudden planar results. This problematic condition, will continue to linger and should be monitored and observed prior to committing to entering terrain. Currently a well bonded layer dense snow is "bridging the upper snowpack" and protecting this layer from triggering in all but thin areas and unsupported features. Expect this to begin to loose some strengthen with the coming cool weather.

Snowpack Details

Surface: variety of surfaces, new low density snow, wind scoured at upper ridge tops and wind loaded on southerly aspects.
Upper: A dense and strong layer of poly crystals overlies rounds.
Mid: An eroding crust with facets at its base.
Lower: Well settled.

Confidence

High -

Problems

Persistent Slabs

This problem has now become stubborn to triggering **Location:** This problem is widespread, however isolated areas such as convex rolls and unsupported terrain is where it is most concerning. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers are unlikely to possible. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be large size 2 and will be big enough to bury, injure or kill a mountain traveler.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Wind Slabs

This problem may be small but in isolated terrain with larger adjacent areas of fetch could present as problematic. expect forecast North winds to continue to transport available snow. **Location:** Specific to South west aspects in areas lee of ridgetops. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers is possible to likely. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be small size 1 but in large terrain with available fetch zones to be large up to size 2.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Loose Dry

This problem is solar induced and in areas such as the other regions of the forecast areas , enough new snow exists for these avalanches to gain mass. **Location:** Specific to Solar aspect terrain where loose and dry unconsolidated snow exists. **Possibility:** Triggering of this avalanche problem from light loads such as skiers is possible to likely. Natural avalanches are unlikely. **Size:** If triggered, expect these avalanches to be small size 1 but could gain mass and push a traveler into a terrain trap.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 1

Valid until: Feb 9th, 2021 1:00AM