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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 28th, 2021–Jan 29th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Triggering avalanches remains possible in wind loaded areas and in steep terrain where sluffing may occur. 

Small avalanches can have big consequences if they are triggered above features like cliffs or terrain traps.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy / light southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -9 

FRIDAY - Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, up to 10 cm in the overnight period / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -7 

SATURDAY - Flurries, 10 cm, with another 10-15 cm overnight / strong south wind / alpine high temperature near -5 

SUNDAY - Snow, 20-25 cm, with another 15-20 cm overnight / strong south wind / alpine high temperature near -5 

Avalanche Summary

There were a few reports of size 1 human triggered avalanches on steep, wind loaded alpine features on Thursday.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, there were a few reports of natural and human-triggered size 1 avalanches, as well as a few size 1 explosives triggered wind slab avalanches in the alpine on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of recent fresh snow sits on firm, wind affected snow at upper elevations, on surface hoar in sheltered areas, on a melt-freeze crust below 1900 m, and on a sun crust on south-facing slopes. Recent winds have redistributed much of this new snow, creating wind slabs in leeward terrain, and stripping the new snow off of some windward slopes.

A crust from early December may be found around 200 cm deep in the snowpack. In shallow rocky areas, recent test results suggest that it may still be possible to trigger this layer. In deeper snowpack areas it has shown no recent results and appears to be unreactive in these areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Small wind slabs may be possible to trigger in leeward terrain at upper elevations.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South West, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5