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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 14th, 2022–Dec 15th, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.

Spring-like conditions in the alpine! Assess the upper snowpack for signs of instability as warm temperatures and sunny skies could destabilize the upper snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported.

Keep sharing your observations by submitting a MIN report! They are especially helpful in the early season when snowpack information can be limited.

Snowpack Summary

Surface: Generally remaining dry despite the high temperatures. Moist snow surfaces on southerly aspects.

Upper Snowpack: The upper snowpack is quickly settling into a cohesive slab with above freezing temperatures and sun.

Lower Snowpack: Various crusts near or on the ground. With a weak layer of facets and surface hoar buried in late November exists 10 to 30 cm above the ground.

Overall snow depths generally range from 100-140 cm in the alpine.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Generally clear skies with no precipitation. Alpine temperatures remain above freezing overnight, with freezing levels above mountain tops. Light northerly winds in the alpine.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate northerly winds in the alpine. Freezing levels remain high, with highs around +5 C in the alpine. 

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate northerly winds in the alpine. High freezing levels persist, with highs around +5 C in the alpine. 

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, with no precipitation. Light to moderate alpine winds. Freezing levels begin to drop, bringing below freezing temperatures to the alpine.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Even though it's December, steep solar aspects could produce loose wet avalanches with above freezing temperatures in the alpine. Keep an eye on daytime warming and remember that loose wet avalanches can step down to deeper instabilities.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

A layer involving a crust and sugary facets exists 10 to 30 cm above the ground. This layer remains a concern and has recently produced some alarming, sudden planar test results in snow profiles. Although challenging to trigger yourself, a small loose wet avalanche could potentially scrub down to this layer, making for a bigger then expected avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5