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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 19th, 2022–Mar 20th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Carefully assess the wind slab hazard as you gain elevation. Rider triggerable wind slab will likely be found in exposed terrain.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow with moderate southwest ridgetop winds. Low of -8 at 1500 m.

Sunday: cloudy with light flurries bringing up to 5 cm of new snow. High of -2 at 1500 m. Moderate to strong southwest winds.

Monday: cloudy with around 5cm of new snow expected. Moderate to strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1600 m. 

Tuesday: cloudy with 5 cm of new snow expected with strong southwest winds. Freezing levels rising to 2100 m.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days skiers have triggered wind and storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5. Most of this avalanche activity has been on north aspects and at or above treeline. We suspect more of this type of avalanche activity will be reported on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs can be found on north and east aspects at treeline and above. 20 to 40 cm overlies surface hoar in shady, wind-sheltered areas and a hard melt-freeze crust on all aspects below 1500 m and on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine.  

Around 50-80 cm deep, a weak layer of facets may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in February. This layer had been most reactive on north and northeast aspects between 1600 and 2100 m. While this layer is now likely dormant in most areas, it still remains a concern for professionals in the region and could still be capable of producing isolated large avalanches if triggered. Check out this forecaster blog for more info.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New wind slabs can be found on North and East aspects in exposed treeline and alpine terrain. Strong winds mean that wind slab could be found further down slope than expected.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Fragile new cornices have been reported recently. Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges. 

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

A weak layer of facets above a hard melt-freeze crust may be found around 50-80 cm deep. Last week this layer produced large avalanches. The problem was most prevalent on north to northeast aspects between 1600 and 2100 m.

Aspects: North, North East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5