Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Jan 28 – 29, 2020Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Lingering pockets of wind-drifted snow at higher elevation remain a concern for Tuesday. Seek out sheltered slopes and watch for reactive wind slabs around steep rolls and ridge features.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Strong southwest winds have blown recent snow into stiff wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded features at alpine and treeline. Natural activity may have subsided but human triggering remains possible.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Mild temperatures are helping the basal weak layers to adjust and the snowpack to strengthen. Deep persistent slab avalanches on these layers are unlikely but may still be triggered from shallow snowpack areas near rocky outcroppings.

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Cloudy, isolated flurries, light to moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -7 C.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries, light southwest winds, alpine high temperature -4 C, freezing level around 1400 m.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate southwest winds, alpine high temperature -3 C, freezing level around 1400 m.

Thursday: Mostly clear, light southwest winds, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Several recent natural, large (size 2-2.5) wind slab avalanches were reported on over the past 48 hours on northwest through northeast aspects.

On January 16th, a natural, size 2 wind slab stepped down to the deep persistent basal facets below a rock band, details here.

Snowpack Summary

Recent strong west and southwest winds have formed stiff wind slabs on lee and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations. 

A crust can be found up to treeline and on solar aspects in the alpine due to previous warming and sun exposure. 

A well consolidated mid-pack overlies a generally weak basal snowpack. The bottom 10-20 cm of the snowpack consists of facets and deteriorating crusts. Although inherently weak, the benign weather pattern this week will likely promote a decreasing trend in reactivity for this avalanche problem. Areas that are most likely to harbor this problem are shallow, rocky start zones. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

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