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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2022–Feb 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Watch for fresh slabs forming at higher elevations with new snow and wind. New snow may be reactive to human triggers as it accumulates over a smooth crust. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with light to moderate westerly winds. Light snowfall overnight, up to 8cm by morning. Freezing levels at valley bottom.

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light westerly winds gusting moderate. Freezing levels reach 1300m, alpine high of -2. 

THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with strong westerly winds. Chance of flurries. Freezing levels rise rise toward 2000 m. Alpine high of 0. 

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with moderate westerly winds. Chance of flurries. Freezing levels remain around 2000 m. Alpine high of +2. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Monday. 

The last persistent slab near this region was reported on Saturday in the Steeples. This avalanche had wide propagation on a south facing aspect at 2300 m and ran for 2 km. It is believed to have occurred on the late January persistent weak layer, with an approximate depth of 50 cm.  

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm of new snow overlies a variety of surfaces. Higher elevations have been heavily wind effected, and a melt freeze crust exists on solar aspects into the alpine. Lower elevations hold a widespread thick melt freeze on all aspects.

The late January interface is buried 15-40cm deep, and consists of a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine. Surface hoar sits above the crust in sheltered areas at treeline and below. 

The widespread January 18 rain crust is now around 40-100cm deep with weak faceted snow above. It is most prominent in the Lizard range. In heavily wind scoured areas at treeline and above this crust may even be found on the surface. 

The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early-December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 100-200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.