Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertainfor the entire period

Monday: Mainly light snowfall starting in the afternoon. Winds picking up to strong south-westerlies. Tuesday: Some lingering flurries possible. Cold.Wednesday: Light to moderate snowfall. Moderate to strong south-westerly winds. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Skiers triggered small pockets of wind slab and heard some rumbling yesterday, but visibility remained poor for observations. A smattering of avalanches involving persistent weak layers occurred throughout the region earlier in the week, on north-east aspects at treeline and above.

The snowpack in the South Rockies region varies considerably at present, with the Southern Elk Valley and Flathead Ranges close in nature to the Lizard Range. Near the Crowsnest, it's been drier and more consistently windy. Castle Mountain has been having its own little party and getting locally heavy snowfall. Anywhere from 4-30cm of new snow has fallen, redistributed by strong south-westerly winds into soft and hard wind slabs on lee slopes, followed by further snowfall with no wind. Old wind slabs appear to be gaining strength, however new ones could form quickly if the wind picks up again. Besides new storm/wind-related concerns, the layer we're still watching in the region is a surface hoar layer buried in early December. It's down about 85cm in the Flathead and exhibits hard, sudden planar/full propagation results, meaning that's it's stubborn to trigger but could create a large avalanche if triggered.At the bottom of the snowpack a variable facet/crust/facet sandwich is located with depth hoar up to size 5mm below the crust, and facets size 2mm above. There has been little in the way of recent activity on basal layers.