Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Monday: Cloudy with flurries turning to snow late in the day. Mild temperatures continuing, with the freezing level around 1500m. 8-15cm overnight. Strong south-westerly winds.Tuesday: Continuing snow and moderate south-westerly winds. A little bit cooler.Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with light flurries and possible sunny breaks. Light winds.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred up to size 3 in response to very warm temperatures and loading of start zones by strong winds on Friday and Saturday. Video footage here: http://bit.ly/yR4E8r . On Saturday, a snowmobiler was killed in a size 3 slab on a south-west aspect at treeline in the Corbin Creek area. Over the last week, there were several reports from in or near the region of near misses, including a snowmobiler who triggered an avalanche and was buried for around 30 minutes, remote-triggered avalanches, and slab avalanches running into unusually low-angled terrain.

Recent storm snow has become moist on solar aspects, and on all aspects at low elevations. The mid February surface hoar layer is now down between 40 & 100cm and is more prevalent in the west and south of the region, particularly in the Flathead. Recent snowpack tests as well as a rider-triggered avalanche on this weak layer indicate that it still has the potential to be triggered in many areas and if it is triggered, a large avalanche could result. Remote-triggering, triggering from below and triggering on low-angled terrain are also concerns. Lingering concern remains for basal facets, particularly in shallower snowpack areas with steep, rocky start zones. Cornices have grown large and threaten slopes below.