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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 10th, 2017–Jan 11th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Watch for areas that have recently been affected by the wind. Wind slabs are expected to be lingering in leeward terrain features.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunny conditions are expected on Wednesday with treeline temperatures around -15C and light northerly wind in the alpine. Sunny conditions continue for Thursday and Friday with treeline temperatures remaining around -15C during the afternoon and light to moderate alpine wind from the northwest.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, explosives triggered one size 1.5 storm slab on a northeast aspects at 2100 m elevation which was 15-20 cm thick. On Monday, several natural storm slab avalanches up to size 2 were observed on a variety of aspects. Ski cutting also produced several storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5. These slabs were typically 15-20 cm thick and were reported to be very reactive in gulley features.On Wednesday, recently formed wind slabs may still be reactive to human triggering. With the winds recently switching directions, wind slabs should be expected on a variety of aspects.

Snowpack Summary

15-20 cm of new snow has buried a variable snow surface which consists of wind scoured surfaces or old wind slabs in exposed terrain, surface hoar up to 20 mm in sheltered terrain, and/or widespread faceted old snow. Recent moderate winds from a variety of directions is expected to have redistributed some of this new snow in wind exposed terrain. Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December persistent weak facet layer has been more prominent and reactive in the Corbin area than areas closer to Fernie. The layer is generally considered dormant right now but may wake up during the next storm or period of warming.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recently formed wind slabs may still be reactive to human triggering in immediate leeward features in wind exposed terrain. Wind direction has changed recently and wind slabs may exist on all aspects.
Wind direction has changed recently. Watch for slabs on all aspects.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.Avoid areas where the surface snow feels stiff or slabby.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2